LA Fires Expected To Get Worse, 24 Dead & Strong Winds Returning, TikTok Refugees Flee to REDNote
PDS Published 01/13/2025
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We still have a lot to talk about with the LA Fires.
Right, because while we’re already starting to deal with the fallout beyond the immediate death and destruction? (BROLL: 0:13-0:29)
That death and destruction? It’s not over.
And it may be about to get worse.
But starting with where we are right now, the fires have burned over 40,000 acres, forced some 150,000 people to evacuate, and damaged more than 12,000 structures.
With California Governor Gavin Newsom saying he thinks the fires will be one of the worst natural disasters in the history of the US (BROLL: 2:10-2:15)
And to that point, early accounting actually suggests the fires may be the nation’s costliest disaster ever in terms of damage and economic losses – as much as $150 billion according to a preliminary estimate by AccuWeather.
Though, of course, we’re obviously not just talking about dollars and cents with this.
Right, we’re talking about human lives.
And with that, as of recording, the death toll has risen to 24.
With the Eaton Fire alone killing 16 people – making it one of the deadliest in California’s history – and the Palisades fire being responsible for the other eight deaths.
And notably, the true death toll may be higher.
Right, another 16 people have been reported missing in the areas of the two fires.
With officials warning the number is likely to rise.[]
Now with all that, the good news has been that firefighters made some progress suppressing some of the blazes over the weekend.
After burning more than 23,000 acres, for example, the Palisades Fire has been 11 percent contained according to CAL Fire, as of recording.
And then, the Eaton fire, which has ripped through more than 14,000 acres? It’s now 33 percent contained. []
And while those percentages might not seem very high, keep in mind, on Thursday?
And with that, the relative calm this weekend actually allowed some people to return to previously evacuated areas.
Plus, today, nearly all LA Unified School District campuses across the city were reopened today, with students encouraged to wear masks on their way to school.
This after more than half a million students were out of school last week because of LA fires this week.
Though, of course, no one’s returning to some of the schools that have been literally destroyed by the flames (BROLL: 0:23).
Plus, today, at least seven schools in the district are reportedly still affected by mandatory evacuation zones or burn damage.[]
And with that, you now have fire crews and resources being preemptively deployed to high-risk areas as dangerous winds are again expected to sweep through the area this week, potentially threatening the progress they’ve made so far.
Right, wind gusts are expected to pick up Monday, reaching speeds in excess of 70 miles an hour by Tuesday.[]
With people like Brian Hurley, a meteorologist with the national weather service, cautioning that while the winds this week may not be quite as strong as they were last week, their long duration could make the fire risk worse.[]
And backing that up, you have one firefighter in Altadena telling The Wall Street Journal:
“We’re not leaving for probably two weeks…We’re going to be constantly patrolling.”[]
But that said, it’s still the next few days that have really got people worried.
Right, with Hurley, the meteorologist, saying:
“Tuesday into Wednesday is a particularly dangerous situation.”
“But today won’t be a picnic either.”
And adding: “This uptick in winds will fuel extreme fire growth and lots of folks are going to have to prepare to evacuate.”[]
And actually, with that, forecasters have issued a rare fire danger alert known as the “particularly dangerous situation” red flag warning for tonight through Wednesday morning.
Notably, that’s the same level of alert that was issued when the fires began last week.[]
Also, big thing, it’s a warning normally issued only once every few years, but this is now reportedly the fourth time there’s been one in just the past few months. []
And of course, that’s part of the reason there’s so much conversation around climate change.
Right, overall, 15 out of the 20 most-destructive California wildfires in history have reportedly taken place in the last 10 years.
And notably, those include the Palisades and Eaton fires. []
And with that, ClimaMeter, an international initiative focused on understanding extreme weather in the context of climate change?
It’s just released a new “rapid attribution study” finding that human-driven climate change has played a role in these latest fires.
Specifically, claiming that temperatures are warmer by up to 5 degrees Celsius, the air is 15 percent drier, and conditions are 20 percent windier, and going on to say: []
“We ascribe the strengthened winds, higher temperature, and drier conditions triggering January 2025 California wildfires to human-driven climate change, and natural climate variability likely played a minor role.” []
But with that, sort of paradoxically, this climate-driven disaster? It’s seemingly forcing the government to walk back environmental protections.
Governor Newsom has signed a broad executive order suspending state environmental rules for rebuilding after fires.
With The New York Times writing:
“The order is likely to be the first of several permit streamlining measures issued by state, county and city agencies in the wake of the devastating fires across greater Los Angeles.”[]
But with that, just this one executive order?
It reportedly covers all of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties and directs state agencies to coordinate with local governments to remove or expedite permitting and approval processes during rebuilding.
Right, most significantly, waiving permitting requirements under a landmark environmental law called California Environmental Quality Act — also known as CEQA (Sea-qua)[]
With The Times noting that Newsom’s order was “unusually extensive.”
Explaining that disaster-driven suspensions of CEQA normally require rebuilding property owners to at least make some effort to comply with the law, while the order announced yesterday is a full waiver. []
But of course, the reason for that?
California has already been dealing with an affordable housing shortage, and the fires?
They’re just expected to make it worse.
And in fact, we’re already seeing reports of wildfire evacuees facing price gouging in the rental market.
With California’s Attorney General vowing in a news conference this weekend that anyone seeking to take advantage of the wildfire victims would be held accountable, and saying:
"We've seen businesses and landlords ... jack up the price.”
"It's called price gouging. It is illegal. You cannot do it. It is a crime punishable by up to a year in jail and fines."[]
And there, you also had the AG issue a warning to others seeking to profit from people's suffering, namely, looters.
With it also being reported there that National Guard personnel, as well as city and county law enforcement, have stepped up patrols even as firefighting efforts continue[]
And with that, as of recording, around 29 people have reportedly been arrested in fire zones.
Including one burglary suspect who allegedly dressed up like a fireman to try and evade authorites.
However, to be clear, not every arrest is for looting.
Right, some of the arrests are for curfew violations.
With the context being there that any area under a mandatory evacuation order is off-limits to non-first responders.
And in other areas, a 6 p.m. to 6 a.m. curfew is in place. []
But with all that, besides being a real issue, looting is just one topic that’s been a source of political disagreement.
For example, becoming part of an ongoing back and forth between Newsom and Elon Musk.
Right, after Newsom said in an interview that there’d be “zero tolerance” for looting, you had Musk resharing a post wrongly claiming:
“Newsom and California Democrats literally decriminalized looting…
“...barring police from arresting looters and prosecutors from prosecuting them. Now he’s opposed to looting.” []
And to that, you had Newsom writing:
“Stop encouraging looting by lying and telling people it’s decriminalized. It’s not.
It’s illegal -- as it always has been.
Bad actors will be arrested and prosecuted.” []
And with that, besides this, Musk has been accused of using his X account to stoke fear and anger in relation to the fires –
Including by spreading misinformation and resharing and commenting on posts casting blame on everything from DEI to immigration.
Notably, though, Musk also received praise for Tesla reportedly deploying eight Cybertrucks equipped with the Starlink terminals to help with internet access.
With Musk apologizing to those expecting Cybertruck deliveries in California over the next few days, saying:
“A new truck will be delivered end of week.”[]
But as far as misinformation, Musk has been just one of several right-wing figures have been accused of spreading it.
With Donald Trump being one of them, and his son, Donald Trump Jr having also faced criticism for earlier appearing to blame Ukraine on social media for the extent of the fires, writing last week:
“Oh look of course The LA fire department donated a bunch of their supplies to Ukraine.”[]
But with that, this weekend, you had Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy saying his country is ready to assist those affected by the wildfires in California.
With him writing on social media:
“Today, I instructed Ukraine’s minister of internal affairs and our diplomats to prepare for the possible participation of our rescuers in combating the wildfires in California.
“The situation there is extremely difficult, and Ukrainians can help Americans save lives….150 of our firefighters are already prepared.”
And there, something worth noting, this really is already an all-hands deck situation.
Right, along with fire crews from several other states, and even Mexico and Canada, nearly one thousand incarcerated people from California’s prison system are also helping fight the fires.
And with that, something we’ve talked about before, the practice? It’s controversial.
Right, because despite risking their lives, on average, they make between $5.80 and $10.24 per day.[]
So many have argued that this program is exploitative, that they are not making enough money considering the risk they are taking.
But as the LA Times explained, for people behind bars, it’s actually a coveted job.[]
Most inmate fire crew members also receive time credits, often getting two days off their sentence for every day they serve on a crew. []
With one formerly incarcerated firefighter telling the outlet that:[]
“Every single firefighter that is out there right now, I’m sure they’re proud to be there. But also every single one of those people has signed away their rights for any sort of compensation if they die on the fireground.”
You even had the likes of Hasan Piker interviewing some of the incarcerated firefighters on stream, with some sort of echoing a sense of pride, saying:
“the return that we get is our second chance at life, you know. This is a pilot program. A lot of us made decisions before our brain was able to develop—before the age of 25. This is our second chance to prove it.” (0:11-0:27)
But these second chances are not always easy, with reports noting that once these inmates are released, many have trouble getting firefighting jobs even though they have all this experience.[]
So you had Hasan also writing that many deserve this chance, that they do not deserve to be cast aside and dehumanized.[]
Kim Kardashian also advocating for them over the weekend, calling them heroes and urging Gavin Newsom to raise their wages. []
Some even starting fundraisers to support incarcerated firefighters.
And so with all that, there’s a whole lot to keep an eye on right now.
But most of all, we’ll be waiting to see what happens with these fires over the next few hours, days, and weeks.
Right, if you’re there, be safe.
If you get an evacuation order, follow it.
And if you have something to share from your experience, please feel free to let me know in the comments.
Musk/Newsom
And with this whole feud with Newsom, for example, you also had the governor hitting back yesterday at Musk’s statements blaming Democratic officials and all levels of California government for alleged mismanagement making the fires worse (1).
For example, claiming that environmental regulations including one meant to protect an endangered fish have helped create a water shortage that has hampered firefighting efforts – a claim that Trump has also made.
But in response, you had Newsom yesterday sharing a clip from a livestream Musk did speaking with LA firefighters in which one seemed to push back on water availability being an issue:
“So, what about water availability? Does water availability – I understand that was like not an issue in Malibu. Is that correct?”
“So, there was water, we have some several reservoirs…Now, just an example, if we have one building, we can flow a thousand gallons a minute on that one building, with the hose lays that we put in to stop it. You can imagine 1,000 gallons power house we can do. So the amount of water we’re flowing there’s really no water system that can keep that pace.” (BYTE: 0:00-0:36)
Right, so basically, he’s saying the issue was just that firefighters had just been using so much water that the system – or any system – couldn’t keep up with demand.
And that tracks with what experts have said.
One expert told CNN, for example, that “no water system in the world” could have handled these fires.
And so you had Newsom writing:
“@ElonMusk exposed by firefighters for his own lies.” []
Celebrities raising money/awareness
And as all of this plays out, we are already seeing people all over LA and the world trying to help impacted communities.
Tons of people donating, volunteering, so much so that some sites are turning products and people away because they are overwhelmed with donations.
Big names chipping in, Beyonce writing a big check to help, Jennifer Garner on the ground working with World Central Kitchen.
David Dobrik, fresh off a comeback, was also dropping off tons of donations and encouraging his followers to do the same.
CharliXCX also donated a ton of products to teenage girls organizing in Altadena, and also encouraging brands who usually give PR gifts to celebrities and influencers to just donate those items instead.
And because there is so much focus on these fires right now, people are generally talking less about the celebrity volunteer angle.
But when they do, their take on the celebrity is generally projected onto their choice to volunteer, right, if you like them, you like their choice to help out.
Then, someone like Meghan Markle, the subject of tons of online hate, was seen volunteering and faced backlash for it.
So internet is going to internet, on that front.
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As the odds of a TikTok ban are getting higher, people are already starting to prepare for a post-TikTok world.
Right, on Friday the Supreme Court heard arguments over a law that would ban TikTok in the U.S. by January 19 if it is not sold by ByteDance, its China-based parent company.
And even though nothing is set in stone, right now, it looks like the court is likely to uphold that law.
There are still a lot of ways this could play out, maybe it goes away, maybe it gets saved, who knows, right now a lot is up in the air.
But the prospect of a ban is no longer some mythical, far off notion, right, it really could happen within a week now.
And what we do know is that if it is banned, it will likely be removed from app stores very quickly, but if it’s already on your phone, it probably won’t disappear.
Though, without updates, it will eventually become too buggy to use.
And on that note, Forbes actually just did a report noting that there could be security risks for TikTok users who choose to keep the app on their phone post-ban.
Right, because TikTok updates pretty frequently, and even though most bring new features or squash bugs, some also address security concerns.
And if millions and millions of people have an app that can’t be updated in response to potential security issues, well, Forbes said the app will just become a “honeypot” for attackers who want to exploit that vulnerability.
So, even though you might want to scroll until it dies, note that it does come with some potential risks.
And so it is not surprising that people are starting to just look elsewhere for their scrolling needs.
And you might think the obvious jump would be for people to go to Reels, but search Reels into TikTok and all you will get is people talking about how much they hate it and refuse to use it.
Whether it be they just hate the content or functionality or, more recently, the actions of its owner.
And instead, to really stick it to the US government, some are choosing to download Rednote, which you may or may not have heard of.
But it is currently number one in the app store, with many kind of calling it China's version of TikTok or Instagram.
With TechCrunch explaining that it started back in 2013, and it:[]
“hits a lot of the right notes for creators looking for a TikTok alternative: it has a layout that’s similar to Pinterest’s; it is typically thought of as China’s answer to Instagram; and critically it boasts a number of social shopping features.”
And right now, TikTok users are very interested, because they are pretty pissed about the prospect of a ban, and are saying things like:
“Like, would that not be the biggest fuck you to the government ever, like, oh you’re going to take TikTok away because you are afraid of Chinese security threats? Just to show you how little we give a fuck, we are going to move to the Chinese version of this app.” (0:33-0:45)
So there are some TikToks from people who have already downloaded it talking about learning Mandarin on it, others sort of saying there’s already a TikTok refugee party happening over there.
Others noting things like:
“People are going there willingly, and giving them their data willingly, because these servers are located deep in China." (0:40-0:46)
“So it’s just interesting, because it’s like, do they like give us TikTok back after this? It’s like their worst fears are actually coming true. It’s not just like, the boogeyman.” (1:10-1:19)
But it’s also worth noting that this trend of people going to Rednote is pretty hot and fast, right, people only started doing this incredibly recently, so you had outlets like TechCrunch questioning how sustained the interest will be.
Also noting that it could end up facing scrutiny from US authorities.
And it is also not the only app getting a ton of attention as people seek TikTok alternatives.
Because the number two app in the Apple app store right now is called Lemon8, but its status is a little more shaky.
Right, some outlets noting that it’s sort of like a combo of Instagram, TikTok, and Pinterest. []
But the thing is, like TikTok, it is also owned by Bytedance.
And even though Lemon8 is not specifically named in the law banning TikTok, it does generally apply to all apps owned and operated by ByteDance. []
So Lemon8’s future is also kind of in trouble.
And so I would just love to know your thoughts on any of this here, especially if you are a TikTok user looking for a potential new home in case the lease expires.
Would you download any of these apps, do you see yourself going to Reels, or do you see yourself just kind of parting ways with that social media habit?
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The FDA could soon approve a non-opioid painkiller that drugmakers say will treat pain without risk of addiction.
And if that’s the case, this drug could be totally revolutionary and introduce a whole new class of painkillers.
But experts are skeptical.
Right, the drug in question was developed by Vertex Pharmaceuticals and is called suzetrigine (Suh-Zet-Trih-Gene - here’s a video).
And right now, Vertex has an application pending before the FDA that could be approved by the end of this month.
And if approved, the drug would be used to treat relatively short-term pain.
Now, to understand why this drug is fundamentally different from opioids, you need to know some basics about how the body processes pain.
Right, so when you experience pain — say from a broken bone — nerve endings in the impacted part of your body will send pain signals to the spinal cord, and then the brain, which makes you feel the pain.
And the way that opioids work is by targeting the brain directly and changing its perception of the pain.
But the way opioids interact with brain chemistry can also produce pleasure and a kind of euphoria, which is why they’re so addictive.
BUT its said that Suh-Zet-Trih-Gene works to stop pain earlier in the process, before it can even reach the brain.
With it specifically blocking the path that pain signals travel through before reaching the spinal cord.
Right, that’s similar to how local anesthetics like novocaine work when you go to the dentist to have a cavity filled, but on a bigger scale.
And, very notably here, clinical trials have shown success in people recovering from two types of surgeries with moderate-to-severe short-term pain.
With a safety study that monitored participants over about six weeks also showing very positive results.
But many experts have cautioned about getting too excited — at least just yet.
And there are a few reasons for this.
Right, first of all, while the studies on short-term pain seem positive, Suh-Zet-Trih-Gene really doesn’t hold a candle to opioids when it comes to chronic pain.
Now, that said, Vertex is still looking into whether it can be used safely and effectively for chronic pain.
But one highly anticipated trial that measured the drug’s effect on sciatica (Sigh-At-Ick-Cuh) failed to show any meaningful improvement over placebo.
And some experts say that unless the drug can help with long-term pain, it can’t substantially change the amount of addiction in America.
Because only a small number of patients who receive short-term opioid prescriptions after simple surgeries actually end up getting addicted, and the bigger addiction risks are people managing chronic pain.
Beyond that, some researchers have also argued that the trials so far have been too short to measure the safety of taking this drug for an extended period of time.
Noting that, when we’re talking about a first-of-its-kind kind drug like this, side effects can become known even after a very intense and thorough FDA review.
And then, of course, there are many who are apprehensive about whether the drug is actually addiction-free.
With many noting that pharmaceutical companies downplayed the risks of opioids while aggressively marketing them in the late 1990s and 2000s to grow what eventually became a multi-billion dollar industry.
And there is a MASSIVE, almost incomprehensibly big financial incentive with this drug.
Right, there is an enormous demand for alternatives to opioid painkillers — even just for short-term pain.
Hell, Vertex has estimated that 80 million adults in the U.S. receive prescription medication for short-term pain EVERY YEAR.
And so if the company gets FDA approval for its drug, financial analysts say, the company’s portfolio of painkillers in development could bring in multibillion-dollar annual sales within a decade.
But, at the same time, others have also expressed cautious optimism, saying we are still in the early days.
With the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review — an influential nonprofit that analyzes the cost-effectiveness of proposed prescription drugs — rating the drug as “promising but inconclusive.”
So for now, we’ll just have to wait and see what the FDA decides here, and for now, I’d love to know your thoughts in those comments down below.
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Should the US government decide who and where in the world can further AI?
That is the question being asked right now after the Biden administration just issued some new rules today. []
Right, specifically, this new policy imposes quotas on the sale of advanced computer chips that make AI possible.
Essentially, these new rules divide the world into three categories: close allies of the US, countries that are already subject to arms embargoes, and everybody else.
The first category is the US and its closest allies - including the UK, Japan, and Taiwan - and they can freely buy AI chips whenever and however they want. []
Then in the middle we’ve got most of the world - like India, Brazil, and NATO members like Poland - which are facing some restrictions.
Specifically, there’s a cap on the number of advanced chips they can buy.
With this cap reportedly intended to allow most AI projects but prevent the completion of massive data centers needed to develop new powerful AI models. []
It is worth noting that the cap in this category reportedly can go up but only if the countries and companies make special agreements with the U.S. government. []
But then there’s the third category - the no-gos, the ones where exports of high-end AI chips are completely banned.
Now, this bunch includes countries that are already blocked from US arms sales like Russia, Venezuela, and maybe most importantly, China. []
And I say “most importantly” there because one of the main goals of these rules is reportedly to stop China from getting the tech they need to produce advanced AI. []
With the Washington Post reporting that China has dodged previous sanctions meant to slow their AI development - partly by getting US tech through other countries. []
And if you’re asking why it’s so important to target China here it’s because both the US and Chinese governments have expressly stated that AI will be central to future military and economic competition between them. []
With Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo telling the AP that these new rules are critical to the US maintaining leadership in AI and the development of AI-related computer chips. []
Adding,
“As AI becomes more powerful, the risks to our national security become even more intense.” []
And Gregory Allen, who previously worked on AI policy at the Pentagon and is now a think tank director, told the Washington Post,
“I think the White House views the next few years as all that we have before a very genuinely, transformational moment in AI and it matters a lot that the United States gets there first.” []
And Biden’s national security advisor Jake Sullivan argues that this framework allows for the US to keep the most cutting-edge AI developments with us and our closest allies. []
Making sure, quote,
“...that capacity does not get offshored like chips and batteries and other industries that we’ve had to invest hundreds of billion dollars to bring back onshore.” []
But, as you can imagine, not everyone is on board with these new rules and there’s been a tidal wave of backlash.
And one of the biggest names there has been Nvidia - which makes sense, considering they control a massive majority of the chip market. []
With Ned Finkle, their vice president for government affairs, calling the rule, quote, “unprecedented and misguided” and adding,
“Rather than mitigate any threat, the new Biden rules would only weaken America’s global competitiveness, undermining the innovation that has kept the U.S. ahead.” []
And Oracle's Executive VP also slammed these new restrictions in a blog post last month before they were officially issued - calling them “dystopian” and warning that it could lead to U.S. companies losing the global lead in cloud computing. []
Which was echoed by the president of Information Technology Industry Council in a letter sent to the Commerce Secretary - saying,
"A rule of this nature would cede the global market to U.S. competitors who will be eager to fill the untapped demand created by placing arbitrary constraints on U.S. companies' ability to sell basic computing systems overseas. Should the U.S. lose its advantage in the global AI ecosystem, it will be difficult, if not impossible, to regain in the future." []
Now, not all tech companies are pushing against this - with Microsoft’s president Brad Smith saying that the company is confident it can, quote,
“...comply fully with this rule’s high security standards and meet the technology needs of countries and customers around the world that rely on us.” []
It is worth noting, though, that this rule comes just a week before Trump’s inauguration and there’s a 120-day comment period.
Meaning that ultimately, it’s up to the Trump administration if and how these rules take effect. []
Though officials from Biden’s admin reportedly told the New York Times that these new rules have bipartisan support and they have been consulting with Trump officials about them. []
But we could also see Congress shoot this down - with the Information Technology Industry Council asking them to step in to overturn these new rules if Trump doesn’t. []
Though, as the Washington Post reports, there are some Trump advisers and Cabinet picks that have taken a firm stance against China and could favor these new rules. []
But also Trump has also indicated that he’s looking to be more accommodating for US tech companies.
And companies like OpenAI have been taking steps to appeal to his administration - especially with its new economic blueprint.
So we really don’t know how this is going to go from here so we’re just going to have to keep our eyes on it.
In the meantime, I’d love to know your thoughts in those comments down below.
