The Honey Problem & Class-Action Lawsuit. Elon Musk Swayed America, the UK and Germany are Next...
PDS Published 01/06/2025
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Honey has reportedly lost millions of users since accusations that it scammed both creators and consumers went viral a few weeks ago.
But, the show has been on hiatus, so we will have to play a quick game of catch-up on that.
Right, so to TLDR this, Honey is a free browser extension owned by PayPal that automatically searches for coupon codes when you are shopping online, and applies them to your cart so you save some cash.[]
It’s been popular for a long time, and tons of creators have promoted it over the years.
But a video posted by the creator MegaLag in December alleged that Honey was scamming creators by essentially hijacking their affiliate revenue. []
Right, when you click a link from a creator to buy a product, the creator is supposed to get a commission off that or credit for referring you to the site, and the site knows how the customer wound up there in the first place.
But MegaLag’s video claimed that Honey took that money by putting in its own tracking link at the last second to steal credit, even if it didn’t offer a coupon.
And on top of that, MegaLag also alleged that Honey dupes consumers by not finding coupon codes, or not offering the best coupon code available.
At the time, PayPal tried to shut down these claims, saying it follows industry rules.
But these allegations blew up, creators were talking about it left and right, and people like MKBHD who had previously had videos sponsored by Honey now warning people against installing it.
MoistCritikal and others apologizing for ever working with them.
With then all of that that leading to Legal Eagle kicking off the year by announcing a class action lawsuit against PayPal.
With him posting a video doubling down on MegaLag’s claims and saying:
“I believe that Honey lied to consumers about what it offered and I believe that Honey lied to creators about what it was doing. And perhaps the worst part of all of this, is that Honey, now owned by PayPal, allegedly made creators the unwitting accomplices in stealing from their own pocket books. Think about how insidious this all was. Honey spent tens of millions of dollars, maybe even hundreds of millions, sponsoring some of the most beloved and successful creators on the planet. Honey allegedly seeded those audiences with their extension, and that extension probably stayed on their browsers like a sleeping leech, waiting for the viewer to conduct a transaction. And thus, forever after, the creator’s future sponsorships and affiliate relationships were devalued now that the creator’s audience was infected.” (5:20-6:08)
With him alleging that if you are a creator who has ever used an affiliate link or sponsorship, he believes it is possible that Honey has swooped in on your revenue, even if you have never even heard of Honey.
So he and other lawyers have taken legal action and filed a lawsuit, which is seeking class action status on behalf of creators.
But in a statement to The Verge yesterday, PayPal’s VP of corporate communications shot back against Legal Eagle’s claims, saying:
“We dispute the allegations in the lawsuits, and will defend against them vigorously. Honey is free to use and provides millions of shoppers with additional savings on their purchases whenever possible. Honey helps merchants reduce cart abandonment and comparison shopping while increasing sales conversion. Honey follows industry rules and practices, including last-click attribution, which is widely used across major brands.”[]
But, as outlets like The Verge explained, the lawsuit DOES acknowledge that last-click attribution is standard, but it argues that Honey uses that practice in a deceitful way.
And with that, you also had Attorney Tom, who is part of the suit, putting out a video further explaining some of the details on it yesterday, noting that right now, this class action only represents creators, not consumers, and a class action for consumers is potentially unlikely.
“Consumers, as a part of signing up for Honey, did agree to an arbitration agreement and a class action waiver, meaning we probably could not bring a class action waiver on behalf of consumers, although I say probably because I reserve the right to change my mind.” (4:50-5:08)
“Now, that doesn’t mean they don’t have a claim, it just means that if there is a claim they have to go to an individualized arbitration that is something that could potentially transpire.” (5:59-6:10)
But he also added, right now, he does not know if that will happen because he is focused on creator claims, not consumer ones.
And that is not where today’s news on this ends, as there are reports that Honey has lost three million users since all of this backlash and these allegations started unfolding.
With those reports seeming to rely on the Wayback Machine, because if you got to November, before all this came out, the Chrome Web Store reportedly said Honey had 20 million users. []
But now, it says it has 17 million.[]
So, that’s only about 15% of its users, but still a decent chunk.
And we will have to see where these allegations and this lawsuit take us, what else we learn here, and if there is more fallout.
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Hundreds of thousands of people have been left without power and at least three people are dead due to a severe winter storm that has spread from the midwest to mid-Atlantic.
As of midday today, almost 300,000 people across six states were without power, with nearly 100,000 of those coming from Virginia alone.[]
Because the storms are affecting such a huge swath of the country, snow totals vary from place to place.
But per NBC News, 62 million people are under winter weather alerts, and some areas could see their hig hest snowfall in a decade or more, making travel dangerous.[]
In Kansas City, for instance, they got 11 inches of snow, which is their 4th largest single calendar day on record.[]
Topeka got 14 inches, which is their third largest single day snowfall.[]
The Washington Post reporting that there were at least three fatalities in the midwest due to two traffic incidents. []
Though NPR has said the storm has killed at least four people in total.
The outlet adding that dozens more have been injured and there have been hundreds of calls for help on the roads all the way from Kansas to Virginia.
So you have major cities like Philadelphia, Baltimore, and DC closing schools.
1,800 flights have been cancelled, too.
So this quick story is just to remind you, if this storm is impacting you, be careful, if your local officials are warning against travel, listen.
Right, there are dangerous travel conditions all over, so stay as safe as you can.
Especially since even after the storm clears, it looks like severely cold weather is going to stay for much of the impacted areas. []
So just do what you can to stay as safe as possible.
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Congress has officially certified Trump’s election victory exactly four years to the day that he incited a violent mob of his supporters to storm the Capitol and disrupt the exact same democratic process.
Right, earlier today, the members of Congress braved a snow storm and convened a joint session to count and certify Electoral College votes.
The last major step in the election process before Trump is officially inaugurated on the 20th.
And while the certification of a presidential election is an essential element in the peaceful transfer of power and American democracy, for much of modern history, it has largely been a simple bureaucratic process that most Americans don’t really think about.
That is, of course, until four years ago, when Trump supporters launched an insurrection to stop the process.
And then numerous Republican lawmakers spurred on by the Big Lie voted against certifying the election for Biden in an attempt to overturn the will of the people.
So today is very significant because it marked the first presidential election to be certified since the 2021 insurrection.
What’s more, it also marked the first time that a presidential election has been certified under new rules guiding the process that were passed in 2022.
With that including provisions that made it harder for members to object to a state’s electoral count, prevented lawmakers from introducing alternative slates of electors, and clarified the role of the vice president, among other things.
But with all eyes on Congress, the Electoral College certification appeared to return to its previous status as a normal, routine process.
Right, ahead of the session, Democratic leaders said that, unlike Trump and his supporters in Congress, that they planned to obey the Constitution, follow the rule of law, and uphold the will of the people.
And they remained true to their word — the entire session went off without a hitch, lasting just over half an hour without a single objection.
And although we haven’t seen any of the violence and chaos that plagued the last certification, there are reminders everywhere.
Right, security has been massively ramped up and the Capitol is on heavy lockdown with tall metal fencing and an increased presence of federal, state, and local law enforcement.
And, very significantly here, for the first time ever, the day has been designated as a “national special security event” by the Department of Homeland Security.
Many Democratic lawmakers also made sure to remind the public of what happened four years ago, reflecting on the violence both online and in public remarks.
Some shared photos of the quiet Capitol today, contrasting that with pictures of Trump supporters swarming during the insurrection. [][]
We also saw Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer giving a floor speech where he recounted the events of Jan. 6th.
With him also going on to warn Trump against issuing pardons for the criminals charged with assaulting police officers during the insurrection, saying that such pardons:
“would be a dangerous endorsement of political violence. It is wrong, it is reckless, and would be an insult to the memory of those who died in connection to that day.”
And that warning on this historic anniversary is a stark reminder of the fact that Trump has long promised that one of his first acts in office will be to issue pardons for people charged in connection with the insurrection.
Effectively removing the punishments for potentially hundreds of people who the legal system has held accountable for the unprecedented assault on Democracy.
Not only commuting the sentences of insurrectionists, but also lifting numerous restrictions on liberties voting and gun ownership.
Now, at this point in time, it remains unclear how many of the accused and convicted criminals Trump will pardon, though he did tell Time Magazine back in late November:
“I’m going to do case-by-case, and if they were non-violent, I think they’ve been greatly punished.”
But the vast majority of people charged in the insurrection could meet that criteria.
Right, in a new analysis, The Washington Post identified and classified 1,549 people who have been charged or convicted with federal crimes connected to the riot as of mid-December.
And the outlet found that more than half of those charged and 60% of those convicted so far “faced only misdemeanor counts such as trespassing or disorderly conduct.”
Additionally, at least 287 people have been charged with less violent or nonviolent felonies like federal rioting, property destruction, or firearms counts.
And only around 379 people have been charged with assaulting police or members of the media.
So Trump really could pardon the bulk of these people — and experts say that would set an incredibly dangerous precedent.
This including Jacob Ware, a research fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, who told The Post that blanket pardons would send “a thundering message of permission” for the use of violence for political gain and election denialism.
Arguing that such a sweeping action would paint Jan. 6 as a patriotic act of resistance instead of an attempt to stop the peaceful transfer of power through mob action.
But that’s where I’m going to end this one, and for now, we’ll just have to wait and see how these pardons play out.
But yeah, just more history being made on an already historic day.
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The Washington Post just censored a Pulitzer Prize-winning editorial cartoonist over a Trump cartoon.
That’s what the cartoonist herself, Ann Telnaes [Tell-nays], is claiming after the paper refused to publish a cartoon mocking its owner, Jeff Bezos. [Image, then Image]
And for context, the inspiration behind this drawing was the veritable parade of tech and media tycoons in and out of Mar-a-Lago since the election to meet with Donald Trump. [Headline/image]
With those including Bezos, who announced that Amazon would donate a million dollars to Trump's inauguration fund and make another million-dollar in-kind contribution. [Quote, find “in-kind”]
Right and so in the cartoon, which never made it past the rough sketch, you see Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg and OpenAI's Sam Altman kneeling before a statue of Trump and offering him sacks of cash. [Image]
With Mickey Mouse also lying face down in either submission or adoration on the ground. [Same image]
With that presumably referring to Disney’s decision to settle Trump’s defamation suit against ABC last month for 16 million dollars. [Same image and headline]
And lastly, you have the billionaire Los Angeles Times owner Patrick Soon-Shiong [Soon She-ong] there holding a tube of lipstick. [Same image and image in corner]
With that seemingly referring to his decision to block the Times from endorsing Kamala Harris for president. [Headline/image]
Now according to Tell-nays, she submitted the sketch before Christmas, but her editor refused to take it, so she threatened to resign, but he didn’t budge, and so now she’s quit her job.
Announcing in a Substack post over the weekend:
“I’ve worked for the Washington Post since 2008 as an editorial cartoonist. I have had editorial feedback and productive conversations—and some differences—about cartoons I have submitted for publication, but in all that time I’ve never had a cartoon killed because of who or what I chose to aim my pen at. Until now.” [Quote]
And adding, “I doubt my decision will cause much of a stir and that it will be dismissed because I’m just a cartoonist. But I will not stop holding truth to power through my cartooning, because as they say, ‘Democracy dies in darkness.’” [Quote same link]
You also had the Association of American Editorial Cartoonists, of which Telnaes is a member and past president, agreeing with her, writing:
“The AAEC condemns the Post and their ethical weakness. Editorial cartooning is the tip of the spear in opinion, and the Post’s cowering further soils their once-stellar reputation for standing up and speaking truth to power. We weep for the loss of this once great newspaper.” [Quote]
But the Post’s Editorial Page Editor David Shipley defended his decision not to publish the cartoon, telling NPR:
“Not every editorial judgment is a reflection of a malign force. My decision was guided by the fact that we had just published a column on the same topic as the cartoon and had already scheduled another column – this one a satire – for publication. The only bias was against repetition.” [Quote]
Now with all this you have some noting this wasn’t the first time one of Tell-nay’s’ cartoons had been shelved.
Right, in 2015, the Post initially published then retracted a sketch depicting Ted Cruz’s young daughters as monkeys. [Quote, find “monkeys”]
With it explaining at the time that its editorial policy was to leave children “out of it.” [Quote same link]
But whether its decision to snub Tell-nays was justified or not, this is far from the only drama the Washington Post has been involved in recently.
With the most explosive example being Jeff Bezos’s decision to block the paper from endorsing Harris just days before the election. [Headline]
With Bezos since expressing regret over the poor timing, but defending the decision in principle.
Though that wasn’t enough to stop the bleeding, as 300,000 people canceled their digital subscriptions by Election Day, according to NPR. [Quote, find “Three hundred”]
With that reportedly amounting to some 12% of all digital subscriptions. [Quote same link, find “12%”]
And even some employees left their posts, including three editorial board staffers and a contributing writer.
And then, in December, a Post editor blocked an article about the departure of Managing Editor Matea Gold [Pronounce 00:46], who was a contender for the rank of executive editor before she quit. [Headline/image]
With Acting Executive Editor Matt Murray accepting responsibility for the decision and reportedly telling editors the Post shouldn’t cover itself. [Quote same link, find “cover itself”]
And this coming after more than a year of embarrassing stories from the Post’s own reporters about its Publisher and Chief Executive, Will Lewis.
With sources alleging that he tried but failed to pressure the Post not to report on accusations that he helped cover up the British phone hacking scandal at Rupert Murdoch’s tabloids over a decade ago.
Though he has repeatedly denied those claims, but the tension between himself and the Post’s rank and file seems to have only grown sharper.
Links:
https://www.npr.org/2025/01/04/nx-s1-5248299/cartoonist-quits-wapo-over-bezos-trump-cartoon-washingtonpost
https://anntelnaes.substack.com/p/why-im-quitting-the-washington-post
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In international news, we gotta talk about Elon Musk.
Right, having established himself as one of the most powerful players in American politics, but he’s also increasingly flexing his political muscle on the global stage as well.
At least, that’s one take we’re seeing from the likes of places like The Washington Post, who is saying:
“[Musk] appears to be applying a playbook similar to the one he used to disrupt American politics, now boosting conservative politicians in the governments of the United States’ top allies.”
But adding: “...his disregard for the veracity of his posts and his elevation of far-right and extremist figures have alarmed liberal leaders around the world.”[]
And with that, we’re not talking about a totally new phenomenon.
Right, Musk has stirred up controversy abroad before.
But in 2025, he may be stepping it up a notch.
With the Post, for example, claiming that in the first few days of the new year, “Elon Musk commandeered global politics through dozens of rapid-fire, often inflammatory posts to his 210 million followers on X.” []
And so with that, let’s start with the UK.
Right, that’s where Musk has directed the most of his attention, at least outside the US.
With the New York Times, for example, claiming the billionaire “has a strange fixation with trolling Britain.”
And to that point, something we’ve talked about before, Musk was among those accused of spreading false and inflammatory posts after the killing of three girls in a stabbing at a Taylor Swift-themed dance class in the town of Southport last summer.
This was then followed by what NBC News called far-right riots across several cities in the country.
But now this time, Musk is among those criticizing the recently elected Labour Party government for its handling of child abuse scandals going back decades.
Right, and a lot of this comes from a 2014 report – the fourth in a series of reports commissioned in 2002 – finding that roughly 1,400 children had been sexually abused in the town of Rotherham (Rother-em) over a 16-year period.
And notably, the report finding that most perpetrators were of Pakistani origin.
With some in the town reportedly claiming they were nervous about identifying the ethnic origins of the perpetrators for fear of being seen as racist.[]
And then, fast forward to 2022, an independent review determined that local government agencies in another town in the North West of England had also left children vulnerable to sexual exploitation.
Though, notably, reports say the review uncovered no evidence of what it called "widespread" child sex abuse or of a “cover up.”[]
Finding, instead, that there were, quote, "legitimate concerns" held by police and the council about the far right capitalizing on the issue of grooming by "predominantly Pakistani offenders across the country"
But that, despite that, authorities in the town did not shy away from tackling the issue.[]
And with all that, of course, the fallout from all this has been ongoing, but the reason it’s back on front pages goes back to recent reporting from a right-leaning outlet by the name of GB News –
With this outlet reporting that Labour MPJess Phillips had recently rejected a request for the national government to conduct a further investigation into the issue
With then political opponents picking that up and us seeing the leader of the Conservative party, as well as Nigel Farage, the head of the “Reform UK” party, blasting the decision and calling for a new national inquiry.
And then, of course, Elon Musk picking up on the story – accusing Philipps of being a “rape genocide apologist” on Friday.[]
And from there, publishing a series of posts attacking Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s record as the country’s top prosecutor between 2008 and 2013
Accusing him of being complicit in the crimes and even saying he should be sent to prison.[][]
And then, beyond that, suggesting more than once that King Charles should dissolve Parliament and order a new general election.[]
With Musk then even sharing a poll asking whether America “should liberate the people of Britain from their tyrannical government.”[]
But with all that, you have people noting that there appears to be some key information missing from the narrative being pushed by Musk.
Right, one, Philips, who has long campaigned for women’s rights, didn’t just turn down the request for an investigation.
Instead, she called for a local investigation to be run by local authorities, rather than the central government.[]
With a key thing to know being that along with numerous investigations into child abuse scandals in different areas of northern England, there has already been a broader nationwide public inquiry into child sexual abuse.[]
And although the recommendations from that investigation haven’t been implemented, which is a key important thing, the Labour Party government, which only came to power in July, has claimed it was working at pace to do so. []
And from there, as far as the allegations against Starmer specifically?
Well, it is true that during his five years in charge, the Crown Prosecution Service reportedly made the decision not to prosecute individuals who were allegedly part of one sex abuse ring.
However, there is reportedly no evidence at this time that the details of the case reached up the chain of command as far as Starmer.[]
Also, that decision was eventually overturned and those men were convicted, with one source telling Bloomberg Starmer was 100 percent behind the decision to admit that they had gotten it wrong the first time. []
And with that, Starmer has defended his record, noting that the Crown Prosecution Service had the highest number of child sexual abuse cases being prosecuted on record, by the time he left office.[]
With the county’s health Minister also jumping to Starmer’s and Phillips' defense:
“Keir Starmer and Jess Phillips, who have both been on the received end of completely ill-judged and ill-founded criticism, are people who have done, in their professional lives, more than most people will ever do to lock up pedophiles, rapists, wife beaters, and every other kind of scumbag in our society.” (BYTE: 0:38-0:57)
And with that, the minister challenged Musk to “roll his sleeves up and actually do something about tackling violence against women and girls,” citing the role of digital platforms “in keeping people safe online.”[]
With Starmer also addressing the role of social media, saying:
“Those who are spreading lies and misinformation, as far and as wide as possible, are not interested in victims.”
“They’re interested in themselves.”
And notably, there, Starmer reportedly had actually wanted to discuss his plans to shorten waiting lists in the country’s national health service.[]
But according to Reuters, “Musk's comments yet again overshadowed the prime minister's attempts to set out his government's priorities.” []
Right, with this just being one example of the power Musk has over even world leaders.
With another aspect of this whole thing showing his influence in right-wing circles specifically.
Right, as explained by Politico, for example, Musk has found common ground around this scandal with a guy known by the name Tommy Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon if you’re wondering why you’re seeing different names in reports.
Saying: “Both claim that an epidemic of sexual violence is being driven by immigrants from majority-Muslim countries and their descendants.”[]
And there, for background, Robinson? He once led whats been called the far-right English Defense League — organizing anti-Islam protests around the UK.
And in October, he was sentenced to 18 months in prison for contempt of court for repeating a libelous claim that a Syrian refugee schoolboy had attacked an English girl.
With Musk having claimed he’s in prison for telling the truth and calling for his release. []
With some fallout from that coming yesterday, with Nigel Farage responding:
"Well, this is a surprise! Elon is a remarkable individual but on this I am afraid I disagree. My view remains that Tommy Robinson is not right for Reform and I never sell out my principles."[]
And then, this leading to Musk saying Farage should quit as leader of the Reform UK party, writing:
“Farage doesn’t have what it takes.” []
With this notably being after Musk had seemingly backed Farage, posing for a photograph with him last month, with Farage even telling the BBC that he and Musk discussed money, perhaps up to a $100 million donation to the party.
And Farage is now saying it can raise the money it needs without Musk.
Adding that he would not accept a donation from Musk if it came with “conditions” that included support for Tommy Robinson. []
And so, we’ll have to see how that plays out, and if Musk might even have enough influence to force Farage out.
And speaking of a power struggle, we should also mention Canada.
Right, Musk has briefly turned his attention there this year, praising a Jordan Peterson interview with the country’s Conservative Party leader. []
But if history is any indication, there’s some reason to believe he might start getting more involved.
Right, because today, you had Canadian PM Justin Trudeau resigning as leader of the liberal party.
Also, notably, with this coming after his government was weakened by the resignation of a top minister over disagreement on issues including how to deal with Trump and his tariffs.
And now with all that, big thing, Trudeau would remain as prime minister until a new leader is chosen.
With the next general election required to be held on or before October 20th.
And with that, you have people wondering if he might lend likeminded Canadian politicians his support in the election, as he’s been doing in Germany, where we’ll head next, and where elections are coming up in February.
Right, Musk has endorsed the far-right Alternative for Germany, writing in an op-ed in a German newspaper that the party is the country’s “last spark of hope.”
With that leading to Germany’s government accusing Musk of trying to influence its elections.
But since then, Musk announced that he would live-stream a conversation with that party’s candidate for chancellor.
And now, with all that, along with the German as well as British government, other European leaders are increasingly expressing their concern about Musk’s influence.
The French president, for instance, suggesting Musk is “supporting a new international reactionary movement and intervening directly in elections.” []
And the Norwegian prime minister saying he finds it "worrying" that someone with so much wealth and influence was getting involved in the politics of European countries, adding:
“This is not the way things should be between democracies and allies.”[]
Of course, on the flip side, Musk has fostered close relationships with some European leaders, including those in power.
And on that, you had the Washington Post explaining one potential concern, writing:
“Musk’s international tangles this week foreshadow how he could seek to influence foreign affairs more directly through his close relationship with Trump — especially in ways that could favor his many business interests.”[]
And that brings us to Italy, with Bloomberg reporting that the country is in advanced talks with Elon Musk's SpaceX over a $1.6 billion deal for the company to provide secure telecommunications to the Italian government.
The possible deal has reportedly been under review since mid-2023.
And with that, the project has reportedly already been approved by Italy’s Intelligence Services as well as Italy’s Defense Ministry, []
But notably Bloomberg said the negotiations had reportedly stalled until recently, appearing to move forward after Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visited Donald Trump in Florida this weekend.[]
Now with that, the prime minister denied any links between her visit and the SpaceX agreement, saying it wasn’t discussed.
But of course, the timing looks bad, and the Italian opposition has seized on it, demanding more transparency about the deal.
And ultimately, we’ll have to see if anything comes out of all that, as well as what happens with everything else, and whether Elon Musk continues playing an even bigger role in more places around the world.
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In international news, Ukraine has refused to renew an agreement allowing for the transit of Russian gas through its territory.
Right, the agreement officially expired at midnight on December 31st, but Ukrainian officials have been warning for months that the contract wouldn’t be renewed.
Though, notably, you had both Putin and Zelensky ruling out the deal’s renewal last month.
With CNBC, for example, now describing the end of the five-year agreement as “neither side” being “willing to strike a new deal amid the ongoing war.”[]
But ultimately, this has overwhelmingly been reported as a strategic decision by Ukraine (1, 2, 3, 4, 5).
With it reportedly being part of a broader effort by Ukraine as well as its allies to:
One: undermine Russia’s ability to fund its war effort.
And two: limit its ability to use energy as leverage against Europe.
And notably, that’s backed up by the Russian state energy company Gazprom, which issued a statement saying the agreement had lapsed following “repeated and explicit refusal to extend these agreements” by Ukraine. []
And it’s also backed up by words of Ukrainian officials.
The country’s energy minister, for example, confirming that Ukraine had stopped the transit “in the interest of national security” and describing it as a “historic event” []
And then, Zelensky himself writing on social media yesterday:
“This is one of Moscow’s biggest defeats.”
Adding: “As a result of Russia weaponizing energy and resorting to cynical blackmail of partners, Moscow lost one of the most profitable and geographically accessible markets.” []
And with that, let’s back up a bit.
Right, the pipeline we’re talking about was built way back during the Soviet Union.
And Putin launched his “special operation” in Ukraine in 2022, it was one of four Russian-based pipeline systems that together provided nearly 40 percent of the EU’s imported natural gas.
But then, after the invasion, Russia cut gas supplies to Europe, driving up energy prices and forcing many governments to unveil emergency measures to help struggling people and businesses.
Not to mention there was the 2022 sabotage of the NordStream pipeline, possibly by Ukraine, as well as the closure of a pipeline that passes through Belarus to Poland.
And with all that, the EU and most of its members have been working to reduce their reliance on Russian gas.
And notably, they’ve been pretty successful.
Right, while, like I said, nearly 40 percent of imported gas consumed in Europe used to come from Russia.
But last year, Russia’s share of European gas imports fell to less than 15 percent.[]
With the pipeline through Ukraine accounting for only about 5 percent of Europe’s gas imports, []
And with Europe generally being less dependent on Russian gas, the new stoppage is generally not expected to impact prices or energy security for consumers in the EU.
Though, with that said, you do have The Guardian reporting that the wholesale price of gas has risen to its highest level in more than a year
Also, notably, you also have CNN getting in touch with one researcher who said the end of the agreement would make it harder for Europe to refill its stores before next winter.
Saying that’s one reason why European gas prices are likely to remain close to their current levels or perhaps rise in 2025, he said. []
And with that, it’s still hitting Europeans hard, something being hit on by European outlets like the German DW News.
Pointing out that energy prices have since dropped since the peak in 2022, but remain above pre-crisis levels. []
And adding that the additional expenses are a significant burden:
Right, nearly 11% of EU citizens struggled to adequately heat their homes in 2023, according to the EU Commission.
And then, of course, this actually will be a financial loss for Ukraine too, which has been making up to $1 billion a year in transit fees from Russia for the pipeline. []
But of course, the hope of Ukraine and the EU is that Russia will be hit harder.
And to that point, Gazprom is expected to lose close to $5 billion in gas sales, at least according to Reuters. []
And notably, as you have CNN highlighting this week, that’s after the EU’s turn away from Russian energy cost Gazprom almost 7 billion dollars in losses in 2022 – the first time it lost money in more than 20 years. []
But notably, with that, not everyone in the EU really committed to weening off Russian gas.
Right, three countries — Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia — continued to buy large amounts of energy from the country.
The Austrian government, for its part, is claiming it had prepared in advance and found suppliers outside Russia, with the country’s energy minister writing on social media:
“We did our homework and were well prepared for this scenario.”[]
On the other hand, both Hungarian PM Viktor Orban and Slovakian PM Robert Fico (Feet-zeh - LISTEN @0:10) have opposed Ukraine’s decision to cut off Russian gas.
And notably, there, these are two leaders seen as being friendly to Putin and Russia.
Right, for example, you’ve had Orban sparking outrage in the EU by meeting Putin in Moscow over the summer, as well as generally facing criticism for his opposition to aid to Ukraine.
And then, like Orban, Feet-zeh has denounced EU sanctions on Russia and military aid to Ukraine
And in fact, he similarly visited Putin in Moscow last month.
But with all that, Hungary still gets energy from the TurkStream pipeline, which brings Russian gas to parts of Europe via Turkey.
And so, Orban’s opposition has been muted.
Feet-zeh? He’s been way more vocal.
Right, he has actually threatened to cut off electricity supplies in retaliation against Ukraine if it did not extend the transit deal.
And on Wednesday he said that the agreement’s end would have “a drastic impact on us all in the EU but not on the Russian Federation.”[]
Though, notably, that’s even as the country’s economic minister also said in a statement that Slovakia would not face shortages because of gas in storage facilities and alternative supplies.
Also, according to Politico, experts believe there is little risk that Slovakia will face energy shortages, saying the country might be more concerned with retaining the revenues it earns from transporting and reselling the Russian supplies. []
And then, keeping in mind Feet-zeh’s recent visit to Moscow, you have some even insinuating that he is just a Russian puppet,
Including, unsurprisingly, Zelensky who has responded to Feet-zeh’s threat, writing:
“It appears that Putin gave Feet-zeh’s the order to open the second energy front against Ukraine at the expense of the Slovak people’s interests.
Feet-zeh’s threats to cut off Ukraine's emergency power supply this winter while Russia attacks our power plants and energy grid can only be explained by this.”[]
And with that, Ukraine has reportedly issued an appeal to Brussels to block the move, claiming halting electricity supplies to Ukraine would violate European regulations.
At the same time, Ukraine is negotiating with other European allies, including Poland, to import more power and offset any action Slovakia might take.[]
But with that, one thing The New York Times has highlighted is that this Slovakia thing isn’t the only way Ukraine’s decision could potentially backfire.
Right, reporting on testimony from military analysts saying that now that Russia isn’t making any money off its pipelines in Ukraine, it might start bombing them, which it hasn’t really done so far. []
But with that, one last thing we should touch on with this, the impact outside of Ukraine and Russia? It isn’t just confined to the EU.
Right, there are 27 countries in the EU, but there’s 44 in what’s considered Europe.
And the one that may be more affected by this than any other is Moldova.
Right, actually, separately from Ukraine’s decision to let the transit deal expire, Gazprom said last month it would halt gas supplies to Moldova starting in the new year.
With the company claiming that Moldova owes close to $709 million for past gas supplies, a figure the country has disputed.[]
But with that, Moldova announced a state of emergency.
And now that the gas has actually been cut off, we’re why.
Right, the energy company in the region of Transnistria, for example, is already cutting heating and hot water supplies to thousands of households.
And that’s with the main power plant now being fuelled by coal instead of Russian gas, with authorities saying there's only enough of that for 50 days. []
And notably, 80 percent of the entire country gets its electricity from that power plant. []
Though, that said, Transnistria, it’s fully dependent on Russian gas.
Right, because very notably, here, it’s actually a breakaway region supported by Russia.
With The New York Times offering some interesting analysis on that point, writing, quote:
“That Russia would risk hurting its own proxies in Transnistria, which has been occupied by Russian troops for more than three decades, is a measure of how the war in Ukraine has altered Moscow’s priorities.” []
Though, notably, on the flip side, the BBC explaining how this could potentially help Russia’s efforts to regain influence in Moldova –
This, after the country has recently re-elected a pro-EU president and supported EU membership in a referendum.
Quoting one analyst saying:
"Russia can wait for the elections and then parties who are not pro-EU will probably win.”
"Because [the president] can talk about EU accession, but what use is that if people don't have money for electricity or gas?" []
But with all that, that’s where I’ll leave it.
Right, ultimately, we’ll just have to wait and see where all this ends up.
